• Home

foorex2day

  • Home
  • Link
  • Dropdown
    • Action
    • Another action
    • Something else here
    • Separated link
    • One more separated link
Home » Investing » Ultracrepidarianism » Silver Smoking Guns

Silver Smoking Guns

This recent post (well delayed for those not subscribing to Tom Szabo's Metal Augmentor) is the sort of quality analysis that I wish many of the so-called silver experts would do. Worth reading.

For those pressed for time, some excerpts:

What if, instead, we studied the Bank Participation Report under the assumption that it is NOT a smoking gun? Can we then find some use in it? I humbly offer one hypothesis.

Let’s go out on a limb and suppose that the increase in the COMEX silver short futures positions by the U.S. banks did not directly cause the price of silver to fall. This is actually pretty easy to do since the short futures positions were put on before the price of silver actually fell.

If the short futures position of the U.S. banks didn’t cause the price of silver to fall, which is obviously true, perhaps the same market conditions that did cause the price of silver to fall also resulted in the banks establishing the large short futures position. How would that work?

To answer the question, we obviously need to look at the market conditions that prevailed during the relevant time frame. And because we have hypothetically eliminated the “smoking gun thesis”, we must now substitute bona fide market forces for the price manipulation that is alleged to have caused the price of silver to decline precipitously.

... if the banks are still holding their COMEX short positions as hedges against loan collateral in the form of physical silver and gold, that could represent a dangerous overhang to the market. It is especially troubling that the loans have not been paid back in almost a year. Another squeeze in liquidity could cause more defaults that would force the banks to sell the silver and gold collateral. One possible early manifestation of this would be a sudden jump in the contango especially as measured by the LBMA silver forward rates.

... I’ll just note that while we’ve had quite a climb in the silver forward rates since the mild backwardation in the shorter maturities earlier this year, we haven’t reached the critical point. In my estimation, the critical point would be reached if the normalized forward rate (after removing the effect of interest) climbs above the historical average. This is something to watch closely while the bank participation in COMEX silver futures remains so large and so short, and I intend to do just that.

Share

Share to

Facebook Google+ Twitter Digg
Artikel Terkait
Posted by Unknown at 2:42 AM
Labels: Investing, Ultracrepidarianism

Newer Post Older Post Home

Entri Populer

  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes)...
  • Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique
    Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique La transpiration excessive est un besoin rée...
  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes) as it see...
  • GLD amendment refers to "unforeseen reasons" for unallocated failure
    GLD has some amendments to its terms up for vote, one of which is "that creations may only be made after the required gold deposi...
  • Allocated Gold at Bank of England declines 755 tonnes
    The Bank of England's just released 2014 Annual Report discloses that it was holding 5,485 tonnes of gold as a custodian, down 755 tonne...
  • Gold forecaster with 100% accuracy says gold to remain weak
    I have found a gold forecaster with a 100% accuracy rate. Below is a chart of two of his recent predictions. The first arrow marks the 15th ...
  • Update on Sprott physical redemptions
    In November last year I posted on some physical redemption from the Sprott gold and pt/pd funds. Since then there have been some more beefy ...
  • Happy New Year!
  • Fractional reserve bullion banking and gold bank runs – Frankenstein Free Banking
    The bullion banking and inter-BB clearing system described yesterday has a lot in common with free banking, which is "the competitive i...
  • Service interruption annoucement
    Your goldchat blogging service will have intermittent service interruptions over the next two weeks due to the fact that I'm in Singapor...

Entri Populer

  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes)...
  • Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique
    Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique La transpiration excessive est un besoin rée...
  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes) as it see...
  • GLD amendment refers to "unforeseen reasons" for unallocated failure
    GLD has some amendments to its terms up for vote, one of which is "that creations may only be made after the required gold deposi...
  • Allocated Gold at Bank of England declines 755 tonnes
    The Bank of England's just released 2014 Annual Report discloses that it was holding 5,485 tonnes of gold as a custodian, down 755 tonne...
  • Gold forecaster with 100% accuracy says gold to remain weak
    I have found a gold forecaster with a 100% accuracy rate. Below is a chart of two of his recent predictions. The first arrow marks the 15th ...
  • Update on Sprott physical redemptions
    In November last year I posted on some physical redemption from the Sprott gold and pt/pd funds. Since then there have been some more beefy ...
  • Happy New Year!
  • Fractional reserve bullion banking and gold bank runs – Frankenstein Free Banking
    The bullion banking and inter-BB clearing system described yesterday has a lot in common with free banking, which is "the competitive i...
  • Service interruption annoucement
    Your goldchat blogging service will have intermittent service interruptions over the next two weeks due to the fact that I'm in Singapor...

Arsip Blog

  • ►  2014 (46)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (1)
    • ►  April (1)
    • ►  March (6)
    • ►  February (14)
    • ►  January (20)
  • ►  2013 (109)
    • ►  December (22)
    • ►  November (7)
    • ►  October (18)
    • ►  September (16)
    • ►  August (10)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (3)
    • ►  May (14)
    • ►  April (6)
    • ►  March (2)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (4)
  • ►  2012 (138)
    • ►  December (13)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (12)
    • ►  September (12)
    • ►  August (42)
    • ►  July (9)
    • ►  June (13)
    • ►  May (2)
    • ►  April (5)
    • ►  March (3)
    • ►  February (9)
    • ►  January (12)
  • ►  2011 (119)
    • ►  December (14)
    • ►  November (3)
    • ►  October (14)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (14)
    • ►  July (6)
    • ►  June (11)
    • ►  May (13)
    • ►  April (13)
    • ►  March (6)
    • ►  February (10)
    • ►  January (9)
  • ►  2010 (130)
    • ►  December (8)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (12)
    • ►  September (8)
    • ►  August (10)
    • ►  July (25)
    • ►  June (21)
    • ►  May (15)
    • ►  April (7)
    • ►  March (10)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (5)
  • ▼  2009 (226)
    • ►  December (9)
    • ►  November (10)
    • ►  October (15)
    • ►  September (20)
    • ►  August (18)
    • ►  July (19)
    • ▼  June (19)
      • The War on Gold II
      • Open Forum
      • The Triumvirate of Wealth
      • Glossary of Acronyms
      • The death of gold
      • Dead End
      • Credit Restriction
      • Metal Accounting I
      • Silver Smoking Guns
      • Australian yield curve and mortgage rates
      • What if?
      • AUD Gold Scatter Graph
      • Open Forum
      • Canadian Mint - $20m loss?
      • The Bermuda Triangle of Currency
      • Canadian Mint missing gold- what is really going on?
      • Boiler Room III - The Deal
      • Like an Arab Sheikh
      • Boiler Room II
    • ►  May (24)
    • ►  April (23)
    • ►  March (24)
    • ►  February (25)
    • ►  January (20)
  • ►  2008 (126)
    • ►  December (22)
    • ►  November (16)
    • ►  October (30)
    • ►  September (24)
    • ►  August (17)
    • ►  July (5)
    • ►  June (7)
    • ►  May (5)

Label

  • 6 de vitamines
  • abîmés
  • activity
  • agrandir
  • ail
  • augmentation
  • augmente
  • Avantages
  • AVENT
  • Backwardation
  • Baies
  • Bénéfice tasse
  • beurre
  • blanchies
  • blanchir
  • bring
  • Brocoli
  • Buvez
  • Camomille
  • caverneux
  • cavernous
  • caviar
  • céleri
  • cheveux
  • chirurgie
  • chou pendant
  • cidre
  • comme
  • Comment
  • Confiscation
  • Conseils et moyens
  • couple
  • Credit crisis
  • Cresson
  • cumin
  • d'agrafage
  • dans le corps
  • Dates
  • de cidre
  • de cumin
  • de glycérol
  • de l'option Henber
  • de la transpiration
  • de la viande
  • de lactation
  • de Niplette
  • de romarin
  • de sélénium
  • de vigne
  • débarrasser
  • dents
  • dernière
  • des fesses
  • des oeufs
  • des oignons
  • donne
  • donne les
  • droits des
  • Economics
  • Éloignez-vous
  • embellir
  • English
  • Épinards
  • est très
  • et au citron
  • et de la sauge
  • évidence
  • excessive
  • façon
  • femmes
  • Fermeté
  • feuilles
  • flat
  • Forecasts
  • Fractional reserve bullion banking
  • Français
  • fruits
  • Gold Haters
  • Gold Standard
  • graines
  • grenade
  • Guimauve
  • happiness
  • haricots verts
  • Hedging
  • Herb
  • Herbes
  • Herbs
  • hh
  • highlight
  • hommes
  • How the industry works
  • huîtres
  • Iles
  • important
  • Investing
  • isage
  • joues roses
  • l'assombrisseme
  • la grossesse
  • La marche
  • la période
  • La vitamine B12
  • La vitamine C
  • Ldermiana
  • Le traitement
  • Le vinaigre
  • Les bienfaits du
  • les cheveux
  • Les fruits séchés
  • Les troubles
  • les zones
  • lisse
  • lui Tastvid
  • lumineux
  • magique
  • mains
  • mamelon
  • mammaire
  • Manger
  • Manipulation
  • masculinisée ou Baklh
  • Masque raisins
  • Mélange
  • mettre
  • moderne
  • Money Laundering
  • mousse
  • moutarde
  • Narrative
  • Naturelles
  • Niplette
  • nipple
  • niveau
  • normal
  • nuque
  • Oignons et ail
  • Option
  • ou des figues
  • Outil
  • pastèque
  • Patience
  • peau
  • pendant
  • Perth Mint
  • Placage
  • Plantes
  • plasma
  • plat
  • plus
  • Pois
  • poitrine
  • porcelaine
  • pour
  • pour les
  • pour maigrir
  • Pourpier Herb
  • prendre
  • problèmes
  • PSYLLIUM
  • Recettes
  • récupéré
  • remède
  • Repatriation
  • roncier
  • rose vous
  • santé !
  • sardines
  • saumon
  • sexual
  • sexuel
  • sexuels
  • Shortages
  • Sindros
  • soin complet
  • soin de votre
  • sombres
  • Statistics
  • sympathique
  • Thé
  • thon
  • Thym
  • tit
  • tonique
  • tonique sexuel
  • tool
  • touchent
  • toutes
  • traite
  • traitement
  • treatment
  • Ultracrepidarianism
  • velours
  • vinaigre
  • visage
  • vitamine
  • Vitamine B3
  • Vitamine B6
  • Vitamine E
  • xheli
  • Yogourt

About

Copyright foorex2day 2015 - Template by DIKLAT HMIF UNDIP And Published By Aku Templates Blogger Indonesian