• Home

foorex2day

  • Home
  • Link
  • Dropdown
    • Action
    • Another action
    • Something else here
    • Separated link
    • One more separated link
Home » Investing » Degrees of distrust

Degrees of distrust

My last blog was ultimately about trust and that maybe the basis is telling us that there is still trust in the system. After writing it I remembered the presentation I made to the 2009 Gold Standard Institute seminar in Canberra. Below is the conclusion from that presentation, where I proposed four phases, or degrees of distrust:

1st Phase

We start to see increasing investment in gold reflected by increasing balances in COMEX or ETFs or GoldMoney etc, but the majority of people still hold fiat and stocks/shares. In respect of gold, people have no problem with storing their metal in "the system".

2nd Phase

We start to see occassional backwardation which comes and goes and it usually only between cash and shorter futures/maturities - 1 to 2 months. This backwardation is arbitraged away by longs who still have belief in the system(s) so are willing to take the risk to make a profit. Gold is still held in the system but growth in reported balances is slowing.

3rd Phase

We see more backwardation periods, prolonged and now not just shorter maturities but maybe 3 month going to small backwardation. It demonstrates less interest by longs to take the risk. Possibly start to see reported balances of ETFs and less reputable custodians starting to stablise even though gold price still rising, which would puzzle ignorant commentators. A physical squeeze is developing.

4th Phase

Now backwardation persists, it is a permanent state in shorter maturities, increasing to longer maturities. Reported ETF balances are declining. A clear signal not all is well. Gold is being pulled and stored outside the system. The strong hands are in the majority, the squeeze is really on.

I'd say we are just starting in the 2nd Phase.

Share

Share to

Facebook Google+ Twitter Digg
Artikel Terkait
Posted by Unknown at 7:06 AM
Labels: Investing

Newer Post Older Post Home

Entri Populer

  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes)...
  • Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique
    Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique La transpiration excessive est un besoin rée...
  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes) as it see...
  • GLD amendment refers to "unforeseen reasons" for unallocated failure
    GLD has some amendments to its terms up for vote, one of which is "that creations may only be made after the required gold deposi...
  • Allocated Gold at Bank of England declines 755 tonnes
    The Bank of England's just released 2014 Annual Report discloses that it was holding 5,485 tonnes of gold as a custodian, down 755 tonne...
  • Gold forecaster with 100% accuracy says gold to remain weak
    I have found a gold forecaster with a 100% accuracy rate. Below is a chart of two of his recent predictions. The first arrow marks the 15th ...
  • Update on Sprott physical redemptions
    In November last year I posted on some physical redemption from the Sprott gold and pt/pd funds. Since then there have been some more beefy ...
  • Happy New Year!
  • Fractional reserve bullion banking and gold bank runs – Frankenstein Free Banking
    The bullion banking and inter-BB clearing system described yesterday has a lot in common with free banking, which is "the competitive i...
  • Service interruption annoucement
    Your goldchat blogging service will have intermittent service interruptions over the next two weeks due to the fact that I'm in Singapor...

Entri Populer

  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes)...
  • Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique
    Le traitement de la transpiration excessive par la chirurgie d'agrafage du nerf sympathique La transpiration excessive est un besoin rée...
  • Indian monsoon & 12.5% interest gold loans
    While writing this article came up which is mildly negative for Indian gold demand (as it is only talking 80 tonnes) as it see...
  • GLD amendment refers to "unforeseen reasons" for unallocated failure
    GLD has some amendments to its terms up for vote, one of which is "that creations may only be made after the required gold deposi...
  • Allocated Gold at Bank of England declines 755 tonnes
    The Bank of England's just released 2014 Annual Report discloses that it was holding 5,485 tonnes of gold as a custodian, down 755 tonne...
  • Gold forecaster with 100% accuracy says gold to remain weak
    I have found a gold forecaster with a 100% accuracy rate. Below is a chart of two of his recent predictions. The first arrow marks the 15th ...
  • Update on Sprott physical redemptions
    In November last year I posted on some physical redemption from the Sprott gold and pt/pd funds. Since then there have been some more beefy ...
  • Happy New Year!
  • Fractional reserve bullion banking and gold bank runs – Frankenstein Free Banking
    The bullion banking and inter-BB clearing system described yesterday has a lot in common with free banking, which is "the competitive i...
  • Service interruption annoucement
    Your goldchat blogging service will have intermittent service interruptions over the next two weeks due to the fact that I'm in Singapor...

Arsip Blog

  • ►  2014 (46)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (1)
    • ►  April (1)
    • ►  March (6)
    • ►  February (14)
    • ►  January (20)
  • ►  2013 (109)
    • ►  December (22)
    • ►  November (7)
    • ►  October (18)
    • ►  September (16)
    • ►  August (10)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (3)
    • ►  May (14)
    • ►  April (6)
    • ►  March (2)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (4)
  • ►  2012 (138)
    • ►  December (13)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (12)
    • ►  September (12)
    • ►  August (42)
    • ►  July (9)
    • ►  June (13)
    • ►  May (2)
    • ►  April (5)
    • ►  March (3)
    • ►  February (9)
    • ►  January (12)
  • ►  2011 (119)
    • ►  December (14)
    • ►  November (3)
    • ►  October (14)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (14)
    • ►  July (6)
    • ►  June (11)
    • ►  May (13)
    • ►  April (13)
    • ►  March (6)
    • ►  February (10)
    • ►  January (9)
  • ▼  2010 (130)
    • ►  December (8)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (12)
    • ►  September (8)
    • ►  August (10)
    • ▼  July (25)
      • Speaking at Sydney ANDA coin show
      • Chimps, Champs, and Chumps
      • Understanding negative lease rates
      • Degrees of distrust
      • The basis does not lie!
      • Follow up to FOFOA
      • When does backwardation matter?
      • Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!
      • Why Investing In Gold Is An Illuminati Trap
      • FOA on Hyperinflation
      • Upcoming cardinal climax good for gold
      • Gold: The Ultimate Wealth Consolidator
      • Chart Mysticism
      • Coin & bar sizes
      • Opening up gold's distribution channels
      • GLD contango strategy, or not?
      • Debtors v. Savers III - Back to "honest" gold mone...
      • My fustration with GATA
      • Debtors v. Savers II - FOA Retro House Mix
      • Gold holds its value
      • Debtors vs Creditors
      • The Debtors and the Savers
      • Unfair coin ban for SMSFs
      • Timing Is Everything
      • AIG Precious Metal Manipulator?
    • ►  June (21)
    • ►  May (15)
    • ►  April (7)
    • ►  March (10)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (5)
  • ►  2009 (226)
    • ►  December (9)
    • ►  November (10)
    • ►  October (15)
    • ►  September (20)
    • ►  August (18)
    • ►  July (19)
    • ►  June (19)
    • ►  May (24)
    • ►  April (23)
    • ►  March (24)
    • ►  February (25)
    • ►  January (20)
  • ►  2008 (126)
    • ►  December (22)
    • ►  November (16)
    • ►  October (30)
    • ►  September (24)
    • ►  August (17)
    • ►  July (5)
    • ►  June (7)
    • ►  May (5)

Label

  • 6 de vitamines
  • abîmés
  • activity
  • agrandir
  • ail
  • augmentation
  • augmente
  • Avantages
  • AVENT
  • Backwardation
  • Baies
  • Bénéfice tasse
  • beurre
  • blanchies
  • blanchir
  • bring
  • Brocoli
  • Buvez
  • Camomille
  • caverneux
  • cavernous
  • caviar
  • céleri
  • cheveux
  • chirurgie
  • chou pendant
  • cidre
  • comme
  • Comment
  • Confiscation
  • Conseils et moyens
  • couple
  • Credit crisis
  • Cresson
  • cumin
  • d'agrafage
  • dans le corps
  • Dates
  • de cidre
  • de cumin
  • de glycérol
  • de l'option Henber
  • de la transpiration
  • de la viande
  • de lactation
  • de Niplette
  • de romarin
  • de sélénium
  • de vigne
  • débarrasser
  • dents
  • dernière
  • des fesses
  • des oeufs
  • des oignons
  • donne
  • donne les
  • droits des
  • Economics
  • Éloignez-vous
  • embellir
  • English
  • Épinards
  • est très
  • et au citron
  • et de la sauge
  • évidence
  • excessive
  • façon
  • femmes
  • Fermeté
  • feuilles
  • flat
  • Forecasts
  • Fractional reserve bullion banking
  • Français
  • fruits
  • Gold Haters
  • Gold Standard
  • graines
  • grenade
  • Guimauve
  • happiness
  • haricots verts
  • Hedging
  • Herb
  • Herbes
  • Herbs
  • hh
  • highlight
  • hommes
  • How the industry works
  • huîtres
  • Iles
  • important
  • Investing
  • isage
  • joues roses
  • l'assombrisseme
  • la grossesse
  • La marche
  • la période
  • La vitamine B12
  • La vitamine C
  • Ldermiana
  • Le traitement
  • Le vinaigre
  • Les bienfaits du
  • les cheveux
  • Les fruits séchés
  • Les troubles
  • les zones
  • lisse
  • lui Tastvid
  • lumineux
  • magique
  • mains
  • mamelon
  • mammaire
  • Manger
  • Manipulation
  • masculinisée ou Baklh
  • Masque raisins
  • Mélange
  • mettre
  • moderne
  • Money Laundering
  • mousse
  • moutarde
  • Narrative
  • Naturelles
  • Niplette
  • nipple
  • niveau
  • normal
  • nuque
  • Oignons et ail
  • Option
  • ou des figues
  • Outil
  • pastèque
  • Patience
  • peau
  • pendant
  • Perth Mint
  • Placage
  • Plantes
  • plasma
  • plat
  • plus
  • Pois
  • poitrine
  • porcelaine
  • pour
  • pour les
  • pour maigrir
  • Pourpier Herb
  • prendre
  • problèmes
  • PSYLLIUM
  • Recettes
  • récupéré
  • remède
  • Repatriation
  • roncier
  • rose vous
  • santé !
  • sardines
  • saumon
  • sexual
  • sexuel
  • sexuels
  • Shortages
  • Sindros
  • soin complet
  • soin de votre
  • sombres
  • Statistics
  • sympathique
  • Thé
  • thon
  • Thym
  • tit
  • tonique
  • tonique sexuel
  • tool
  • touchent
  • toutes
  • traite
  • traitement
  • treatment
  • Ultracrepidarianism
  • velours
  • vinaigre
  • visage
  • vitamine
  • Vitamine B3
  • Vitamine B6
  • Vitamine E
  • xheli
  • Yogourt

About

Copyright foorex2day 2015 - Template by DIKLAT HMIF UNDIP And Published By Aku Templates Blogger Indonesian